Crop Failure Affects on Ethanol Production - Question

Environment   Apr 8, 2016 by Emma Moore

Questions:

1. Is ethanol carbon neutral?

2. Is there a place for ethanol in the future of Ontario's transportation industry?

3. Will climate change severely affect transportation in Ontario with the failure of crops (corn, sugar cane, etc.) used in ethanol? 

Contact a professional Question:

Will climate change severely affect transportation in Ontario with the failure of crops (due to drought) used in the production of Ethanol?

Emailed: Ontario Agri-Food Technologies

Agri-Technology Commercialization Centre

Tyler Whale, President

Contact:  info@oaft.org

Response:

Hello Emma,

What you’re aiming to answer is very interesting and challenging at the  same time.  I’ve CC’d a friend of mine – Rachel Murdy - who works with IGPC – a  large ethanol producer in Aylmer.  She may add to the conversation.  Here are  some of the issues you’re going to have to explore:

1.  Ethanol production currently represents about 5-10% of fuel in some  parts of Canada…not a huge %.  Without it, it wouldn’t be a hole we couldn’t  overcome.  Having said that, it’s important to think that we could/should be  expanding the % of ethanol in our mix.  In particular – large transport  trucks…we need to get them off of fossil fuels.  Most like the smaller  cars/trucks will move towards electric…but big transport is a big part of GHG  emissions we need to deal with.  In fact, transportation is the biggest  contributor to our GHG in Canada.

2.  Corn is grown in regions much further south than Ontario.  That is to  say that there are a lot of varieties that are well suited to temperatures that  are warmer than in Ontario.  As such we have a long time before climate change  will actually hamper Ontario production.  Having said that, corn is a very  ‘globalized’ commodity now.  If the world suffers from not enough corn, there  will be priority uses (food) and potentially ethanol loses some of its supply as  a result.  That, in my mind, is a less likely scenario.  Corn production in  Ontario might even increase as a result of warmer weather.

3.  A much bigger threat to corn production (in the short term) is major  drought events…or weather events that prevent corn production.   Severe weather  events, as a result of climate change or not, are a real threat.

4.  Ethanol can be made out of many different things and second generation  (or cellulosic ethanol) is becoming more likely to be the major source of  ethanol going forwards.  This can be produced from many different sorts f  biomass (like grasses, any kind of sugar, etc.).

So…there are some initial thoughts.  I think you would be well served to  speak with Rachel and perhaps reach out to other experts (such as GreenField  Specialty Alcohols, University of Guelph faculty, etc.). 

Let me know if you need more introductions…but there is a bit of food for  thought there for you to consider.

TW

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- Emma M.

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